NULISA: a novel proteomic liquid biopsy platform with attomolar sensitivity and high multiplexing (preprint)

The blood proteome holds great promise for precision medicine but poses daunting challenges due to the low abundance of the majority of plasma proteins and the vast dynamic range across the proteome. We report the development and validation of a novel proteomic analysis technology - NUcleic acid Linked Immuno-Sandwich Assay (NULISA) - that incorporates a dual capture and release mechanism to suppress the assay background to the minimum, thus drastically improving the signal-to-noise ratio. NULISA improves the sensitivity of the proximity ligation assay by over 10,000-fold to the attomolar level, which is enabled by antibody-conjugated DNA sequences that mediate the purification of immunocomplexes and contain target- and sample-specific barcodes for next-generation sequencing-based, highly multiplexed analysis. To demonstrate its performance and utility, we developed a 200-plex NULISA targeting 124 cytokines and chemokines and 80 other immune response-related proteins that demonstrated superior sensitivity for detecting low-abundance proteins and high concordance with other immunoassays. The ultra-high sensitivity enabled the detection of previously difficult-to-detect but biologically important, low-abundance biomarkers in patients with autoimmune diseases and COVID-19. Fully automated NULISA uniquely addresses longstanding challenges in the proteomic analysis of liquid biopsy samples and makes broad and in-depth proteomic analysis accessible to the general research community and future diagnostic applications.

Cultural Distance and Chinese Outbound Tourism: Exploring the Moderating Effect of Geographical Distance

In this study, the gravity model is applied via the dynamic generalised methods of moments estimation to assess the role of geographical distance in moderating the impact of culture on outbound tourism flows. The results show that cultural distance has a positive impact on Chinese outbound tourism flow. However, the effect of cultural distance on outbound tourism flow decreases as geographical distance increases since travellers to nearby destinations are more strongly influenced by cultural distance than travellers to more distant markets. These results therefore support the concept of the 'diminishing effect of cultural distance';on the Chinese outbound tourism market. In addition, the results of this study serve as a basis for promoting the sustained contribution of Chinese outbound tourism to the development of destination management, which will help with the recovery of international tourism following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Effectiveness of Liu-zi-jue exercise on coronavirus disease 2019 in the patients: a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine the effect of Liu-zi-jue exercise on the respiratory symptoms, quality of life, and mental health of patients with mild coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: A single-center randomized controlled trial was conducted with 104 patients with mild COVID-19. The patients were randomly assigned to the Liu-zi-jue plus conventional therapy group and conventional therapy group. The outcome measures included Modified Borg Dyspnea Scale (MBDS) score, Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) score, Fatigue Scale-14 (FS-14), respiratory symptoms, and vital signs. Data were collected on the first and sixth days of hospitalization and on the discharge day. RESULTS: Repeated-measures ANOVA revealed that the whole scales all showed a downward trend in the two groups (all 0.05). The results of single-group effect suggested that the whole scale score in the intervention group was significantly lower than that in the control group at the sixth day of hospitalization. Compared with the control group, only the MBDS, expectoration, and FS-14 scores showed significantly lower scores at the discharge day ( 0.001, 0.011, 0.002). Comparison within the group showed that all the variables were significantly different at the three time points with a decreasing trend ( 0.05), except for the PHQ-9 and expectoration scores ( 0.331, 0.052). All patients' vital signs remained within a stable normal range throughout the hospital stay. CONCLUSION: The results suggested that Liu-zi-jue exercise as a complementary and alternative therapy showed beneficial effects on improving the symptoms (shortness of breath, fatigue, and cough), quality of life, and mental health of patients with mild COVID-19.

Molnupiravir, an Oral Antiviral Treatment for COVID-19 (preprint)

BackgroundEasily distributed oral antivirals are urgently needed to treat coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), prevent progression to severe illness, and block transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We report the results of a Phase 2a trial evaluating the safety, tolerability, and antiviral efficacy of molnupiravir in the treatment of COVID-19 (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04405570). MethodsEligible participants included outpatients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptom onset within 7 days. Participants were randomized 1:1 to 200 mg molnupiravir or placebo, or 3:1 to molnupiravir (400 or 800 mg) or placebo, twice-daily for 5 days. Antiviral activity was assessed as time to undetectable levels of viral RNA by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction and time to elimination of infectious virus isolation from nasopharyngeal swabs. ResultsAmong 202 treated participants, virus isolation was significantly lower in participants receiving 800 mg molnupiravir (1.9%) versus placebo (16.7%) at Day 3 (p = 0.02). At Day 5, virus was not isolated from any participants receiving 400 or 800 mg molnupiravir, versus 11.1% of those receiving placebo (p = 0.03). Time to viral RNA clearance was decreased and a greater proportion overall achieved clearance in participants administered 800 mg molnupiravir versus placebo (p = 0.01). Molnupiravir was generally well tolerated, with similar numbers of adverse events across all groups. ConclusionsMolnupiravir is the first oral, direct-acting antiviral shown to be highly effective at reducing nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 infectious virus and viral RNA and has a favorable safety and tolerability profile.

Infectious SARS-CoV-2 Virus in Symptomatic COVID-19 Outpatients: Host, Disease, and Viral Correlates (preprint)

Background While SARS-CoV-2 infectious virus isolation in outpatients with COVID-19 has been associated with viral RNA levels and symptom duration, little is known about the host, disease and viral determinants of infectious virus detection. Methods COVID-19 adult outpatients were enrolled within 7 days of symptom onset. Clinical symptoms were recorded via patient diary. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected to quantitate SARS-CoV-2 RNA by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction and for infectious virus isolation in Vero E6-cells. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured in serum using a validated ELISA assay. Results Among 204 participants with mild-to-moderate symptomatic COVID19, the median nasopharyngeal viral RNA was 6.5 (IQR 4.7-7.6 log 10 copies/mL), and 26% had detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (IgA, IgM, IgG, and/or total Ig) at baseline. Infectious virus was recovered in 7% of participants with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies compared to 58% of participants without antibodies (probability ratio (PR)=0.12, 95% CI: 0.04, 0.36; p=0.00016). Infectious virus isolation was also associated with higher levels of viral RNA (mean RNA difference +2.6 log 10 , 95% CI: 2.2, 3.0; p<0.0001) and fewer days since symptom onset (PR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.71, 0.88 per day; p<0.0001). Conclusions The presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is strongly associated with clearance of infectious virus isolation. Seropositivity and viral RNA levels are likely more reliable markers of infectious virus clearance than subjective measure of COVID-19 symptom duration. Virus-targeted treatment and prevention strategies should be administered as early as possible and ideally before seroconversion. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT04405570 Key Points (Summary) Among COVID-19 outpatients within 7 days of symptom onset, the presence of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies was strongly associated with clearance of infectious virus. Seropositivity appears to be more reliable marker of infectious virus clearance than subjective measure of COVID-19 symptoms.

A risk score based on baseline risk factors for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: To develop a sensitive and clinically applicable risk assessment tool identifying coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with a high risk of mortality at hospital admission. This model would assist frontline clinicians in optimizing medical treatment with limited resources. METHODS: 6415 patients from seven hospitals in Wuhan city were assigned to the training and testing cohorts. A total of 6351 patients from another three hospitals in Wuhan, 2169 patients from outside of Wuhan, and 553 patients from Milan, Italy were assigned to three independent validation cohorts. A total of 64 candidate clinical variables at hospital admission were analyzed by random forest and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analyses. RESULTS: Eight factors, namely, Oxygen saturation, blood Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, admission before the date the national Maximum number of daily new cases was reached, Age, Procalcitonin, C-reactive protein (CRP), and absolute Neutrophil counts, were identified as having significant associations with mortality in COVID-19 patients. A composite score based on these eight risk factors, termed the OURMAPCN-score, predicted the risk of mortality among the COVID-19 patients, with a C-statistic of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90-0.93). The hazard ratio for all-cause mortality between patients with OURMAPCN-score >11 compared with those with scores ≤ 11 was 18.18 (95% CI 13.93-23.71; p < .0001). The predictive performance, specificity, and sensitivity of the score were validated in three independent cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The OURMAPCN score is a risk assessment tool to determine the mortality rate in COVID-19 patients based on a limited number of baseline parameters. This tool can assist physicians in optimizing the clinical management of COVID-19 patients with limited hospital resources.

Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Therapy for Critically Ill Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients in Wuhan, China: A Retrospective Multicenter Cohort Study.

Currently, little in-depth evidence is known about the application of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) therapy in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. This retrospective multicenter cohort study included patients with COVID-19 at 7 designated hospitals in Wuhan, China. The patients were followed up until June 30, 2020. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the risk factors associated with unsuccessful ECMO weaning. Propensity score matching was used to match patients who received veno-venous ECMO with those who received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV)-only therapy. Of 88 patients receiving ECMO therapy, 27 and 61 patients were and were not successfully weaned from ECMO, respectively. Additionally, 15, 15, and 65 patients were further weaned from IMV, discharged from hospital, or died during hospitalization, respectively. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, a lymphocyte count ≤0.5×109/L and D-dimer concentration >4× the upper limit of normal level at ICU admission, a peak PaCO2 >60 mmHg at 24 h before ECMO initiation, and no tracheotomy performed during the ICU stay were independently associated with lower odds of ECMO weaning. In the propensity score-matched analysis, a mixed-effect Cox model detected a lower hazard ratio for 120-day all-cause mortality after ICU admission during hospitalization in the ECMO group. The presence of lymphocytopenia, higher D-dimer concentrations at ICU admission and hypercapnia before ECMO initiation could help to identify patients with a poor prognosis. Tracheotomy could facilitate weaning from ECMO. ECMO relative to IMV-only therapy was associated with improved outcomes in critically ill COVID-19 patients.

The Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Determines Clinical Efficacy of Corticosteroid Therapy in Patients with COVID-19.

Corticosteroid therapy is now recommended as a treatment in patients with severe COVID-19. But one key question is how to objectively identify severely ill patients who may benefit from such therapy. Here, we assigned 12,862 COVID-19 cases from 21 hospitals in Hubei Province equally to a training and a validation cohort. We found that a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) > 6.11 at admission discriminated a higher risk for mortality. Importantly, however, corticosteroid treatment in such individuals was associated with a lower risk of 60-day all-cause mortality. Conversely, in individuals with an NLR ≤ 6.11 or with type 2 diabetes, corticosteroid treatment was not associated with reduced mortality, but rather increased risks of hyperglycemia and infections. These results show that in the studied cohort corticosteroid treatment is associated with beneficial outcomes in a subset of COVID-19 patients who are non-diabetic and with severe symptoms as defined by NLR.

Development and validation of a risk score using complete blood count to predict in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: To develop a sensitive risk score predicting the risk of mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using complete blood count (CBC). METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study from a total of 13,138 inpatients with COVID-19 in Hubei, China, and Milan, Italy. Among them, 9,810 patients with ≥2 CBC records from Hubei were assigned to the training cohort. CBC parameters were analyzed as potential predictors for all-cause mortality and were selected by the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM). FINDINGS: Five risk factors were derived to construct a composite score (PAWNN score) using the Cox regression model, including platelet counts, age, white blood cell counts, neutrophil counts, and neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio. The PAWNN score showed good accuracy for predicting mortality in 10-fold cross-validation (AUROCs 0.92-0.93) and subsets with different quartile intervals of follow-up and preexisting diseases. The performance of the score was further validated in 2,949 patients with only 1 CBC record from the Hubei cohort (AUROC 0.97) and 227 patients from the Italian cohort (AUROC 0.80). The latent Markov model (LMM) demonstrated that the PAWNN score has good prediction power for transition probabilities between different latent conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The PAWNN score is a simple and accurate risk assessment tool that can predict the mortality for COVID-19 patients during their entire hospitalization. This tool can assist clinicians in prioritizing medical treatment of COVID-19 patients. FUNDING: This work was supported by National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFF0101504, 2016YFF0101505, 2020YFC2004702, 2020YFC0845500), the Key R&D Program of Guangdong Province (2020B1111330003), and the medical flight plan of Wuhan University (TFJH2018006).

Redefining Cardiac Biomarkers in Predicting Mortality of Inpatients With COVID-19.

The prognostic power of circulating cardiac biomarkers, their utility, and pattern of release in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients have not been clearly defined. In this multicentered retrospective study, we enrolled 3219 patients with diagnosed COVID-19 admitted to 9 hospitals from December 31, 2019 to March 4, 2020, to estimate the associations and prognostic power of circulating cardiac injury markers with the poor outcomes of COVID-19. In the mixed-effects Cox model, after adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities, the adjusted hazard ratio of 28-day mortality for hs-cTnI (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I) was 7.12 ([95% CI, 4.60-11.03] P<0.001), (NT-pro)BNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide or brain natriuretic peptide) was 5.11 ([95% CI, 3.50-7.47] P<0.001), CK (creatine phosphokinase)-MB was 4.86 ([95% CI, 3.33-7.09] P<0.001), MYO (myoglobin) was 4.50 ([95% CI, 3.18-6.36] P<0.001), and CK was 3.56 ([95% CI, 2.53-5.02] P<0.001). The cutoffs of those cardiac biomarkers for effective prognosis of 28-day mortality of COVID-19 were found to be much lower than for regular heart disease at about 19%-50% of the currently recommended thresholds. Patients with elevated cardiac injury markers above the newly established cutoffs were associated with significantly increased risk of COVID-19 death. In conclusion, cardiac biomarker elevations are significantly associated with 28-day death in patients with COVID-19. The prognostic cutoff values of these biomarkers might be much lower than the current reference standards. These findings can assist in better management of COVID-19 patients to improve outcomes. Importantly, the newly established cutoff levels of COVID-19-associated cardiac biomarkers may serve as useful criteria for the future prospective studies and clinical trials.

No significant association between dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors and adverse outcomes of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP4) is commonly targeted to achieve glycemic control and has potent anti-inflammatory and immunoregulatory effects. Recent structural analyses indicated a potential tight interaction between DPP4 and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), raising a promising hypothesis that DPP4 inhibitor (DPP4i) drugs might be an optimal strategy for treating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among patients with diabetes. However, there has been no direct clinical evidence illuminating the associations between DPP4i use and COVID-19 outcomes. AIM: To illuminate the associations between DPP4i usage and the adverse outcomes of COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, retrospective analysis including 2563 patients with type 2 diabetes who were hospitalized due to COVID-19 at 16 hospitals in Hubei Province, China. After excluding ineligible individuals, 142 patients who received DPP4i drugs and 1115 patients who received non-DPP4i oral anti-diabetic drugs were included in the subsequent analysis. We performed a strict propensity score matching (PSM) analysis where age, sex, comorbidities, number of oral hypoglycemic agents, heart rate, blood pressure, pulse oxygen saturation (SpO2) < 95%, CT diagnosed bilateral lung lesions, laboratory indicators, and proportion of insulin usage were matched. Finally, 111 participants treated with DPP4i drugs were successfully matched to 333 non-DPP4i users. Then, a linear logistic model and mixed-effect Cox model were applied to analyze the associations between in-hospital DPP4i use and adverse outcomes of COVID-19. RESULTS: After rigorous matching and further adjustments for imbalanced variables in the linear logistic model and Cox adjusted model, we found that there was no significant association between in-hospital DPP4i use (DPP4i group) and 28-d all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.44, 95%CI: 0.09-2.11, P = 0.31). Likewise, the incidences and risks of secondary outcomes, including septic shock, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or acute organ (kidney, liver, and cardiac) injuries, were also comparable between the DPP4i and non-DPP4i groups. The performance of DPP4i agents in achieving glucose control (e.g., the median level of fasting blood glucose and random blood glucose) and inflammatory regulation was approximately equivalent in the DPP4i and non-DPP4i groups. Furthermore, we did not observe substantial side effects such as uncontrolled glycemia or acidosis due to DPP4i application relative to the use of non-DPP4i agents in the study cohort. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrated that DPP4i use is not significantly associated with poor outcomes of COVID-19 or other adverse effects of anti-diabetic treatment. The data support the continuation of DPP4i agents for diabetes management in the setting of COVID-19.

Kidney Function Indicators Predict Adverse Outcomes of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a recently emerged respiratory infectious disease with kidney injury as a part of the clinical complications. However, the dynamic change of kidney function and its association with COVID-19 prognosis are largely unknown. METHODS: In this multicenter retrospective cohort study, we analyzed clinical characteristics, medical history, laboratory tests, and treatment data of 12,413 COVID-19 patients. The patient cohort was stratified according to the severity of the outcome into three groups: non-severe, severe, and death. FINDINGS: The prevalence of elevated blood urea nitrogen (BUN), elevated serum creatinine (Scr), and decreased blood uric acid (BUA) at admission was 6.29%, 5.22%, and 11.66%, respectively. The trajectories showed the elevation in BUN and Scr levels, as well as a reduction in BUA level for 28 days after admission in death cases. Increased all-cause mortality risk was associated with elevated baseline levels of BUN and Scr and decreased levels of BUA. CONCLUSIONS: The dynamic changes of the three kidney function markers were associated with different severity and poor prognosis of COVID-19 patients. BUN showed a close association with and high potential for predicting adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients for severity stratification and triage. FUNDING: This study was supported by grants from the National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFF0101504), the National Science Foundation of China (81630011, 81970364, 81970070, 81970011, 81870171, and 81700356), the Major Research Plan of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91639304), the Hubei Science and Technology Support Project (2019BFC582, 2018BEC473, and 2017BEC001), and the Medical Flight Plan of Wuhan University.

Metformin Is Associated with Higher Incidence of Acidosis, but Not Mortality, in Individuals with COVID-19 and Pre-existing Type 2 Diabetes.

The safety and efficacy of anti-diabetic drugs are critical for maximizing the beneficial impacts of well-controlled blood glucose on the prognosis of individuals with COVID-19 and pre-existing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Metformin is the most commonly prescribed first-line medication for T2D, but its impact on the outcomes of individuals with COVID-19 and T2D remains to be clarified. Our current retrospective study in a cohort of 1,213 hospitalized individuals with COVID-19 and pre-existing T2D indicated that metformin use was significantly associated with a higher incidence of acidosis, particularly in cases with severe COVID-19, but not with 28-day COVID-19-related mortality. Furthermore, metformin use was significantly associated with reduced heart failure and inflammation. Our findings provide clinical evidence in support of continuing metformin treatment in individuals with COVID-19 and pre-existing T2D, but acidosis and kidney function should be carefully monitored in individuals with severe COVID-19.

Computational Prediction of Mutational Effects on the SARS-CoV-2 Binding by Relative Free Energy Calculations (preprint)

The ability of coronaviruses to infect humans is invariably associated with their binding strengths to human receptor proteins. Both SARS-CoV-2, initially named 2019-nCoV, and SARS-CoV were reported to utilize angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) as an entry receptor in human cells. To better understand the interplay between SARS-CoV-2 and ACE2, we performed computational alanine scanning mutagenesis on the “hotspot” residues at protein-protein interfaces using relative free energy calculations. Our data suggest that the mutations in SARS-CoV-2 lead to a greater binding affinity relative to SARS-CoV. In addition, our free energy calculations provide insight into the infectious ability of viruses on a physical basis, and also provide useful information for the design of antiviral drugs.

In-Hospital Use of Statins Is Associated with a Reduced Risk of Mortality among Individuals with COVID-19.

Statins are lipid-lowering therapeutics with favorable anti-inflammatory profiles and have been proposed as an adjunct therapy for COVID-19. However, statins may increase the risk of SARS-CoV-2 viral entry by inducing ACE2 expression. Here, we performed a retrospective study on 13,981 patients with COVID-19 in Hubei Province, China, among which 1,219 received statins. Based on a mixed-effect Cox model after propensity score-matching, we found that the risk for 28-day all-cause mortality was 5.2% and 9.4% in the matched statin and non-statin groups, respectively, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.58. The statin use-associated lower risk of mortality was also observed in the Cox time-varying model and marginal structural model analysis. These results give support for the completion of ongoing prospective studies and randomized controlled trials involving statin treatment for COVID-19, which are needed to further validate the utility of this class of drugs to combat the mortality of this pandemic.

Longitudinal Association Between Markers of Liver Injury and Mortality in COVID-19 in China.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a new infectious disease. To reveal the hepatic injury related to this disease and its clinical significance, we conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study that included 5,771 adult patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in Hubei Province. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We reported the distributional and temporal patterns of liver injury indicators in these patients and determined their associated factors and death risk. Longitudinal liver function tests were retrospectively analyzed and correlated with the risk factors and death. Liver injury dynamic patterns differed in alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and total bilirubin (TBIL). AST elevated first, followed by ALT, in severe patients. ALP modestly increased during hospitalization and largely remained in the normal range. The fluctuation in TBIL levels was mild in the non-severe and the severe groups. AST abnormality was associated with the highest mortality risk compared with the other indicators of liver injury during hospitalization. Common factors associated with elevated liver injury indicators were lymphocyte count decrease, neutrophil count increase, and male gender. CONCLUSION: The dynamic patterns of liver injury indicators and their potential risk factors may provide an important explanation for the COVID-19-associated liver injury. Because elevated liver injury indicators, particularly AST, are strongly associated with the mortality risk, our study indicates that these parameters should be monitored during hospitalization.